Breaking news - Ken's secret poll results show slim lead over Boris
Breaking news – I have just obtained the figures from the Mori poll carried out by the Labour party for Ken.
Asked to state their first preference choice for Mayor, 37 per cent said Ken, 28 per cent said Boris, 14 per cent Brian Paddick and three per cent chose Green candidate Sian Berry.
Of those certain to vote, 38 per cent backed Ken, 35 per cent Boris, 14 per cent BP and two per cent Sian.
Then, when forced to choose between Ken and Boris, of those certain to vote, 49 per cent opted for the Mayor and 47 per cent for the Tory.
When the question was widened to all respondents, Ken polled 50 per cent and Boris 42 per cent (eight per cent spoiled their papers).
What does it mean? Well, it’s clearly a two-horse race between Ken and Boris, as we always thought. But the figures are somewhat different from the YouGov survey for ITV London, which I mentioned earlier today (see previous blog entry) and favour Ken over Boris.
However, there remains the tiniest of margins between the two when the other candidates are removed – so second-preference votes will determine who secures victory in May.
Of course the reason for this two-horse race is that the only real media coverage is of the two 'main' candidates plus the statutory LibDem. And others involved in organising Mayoral events do everything they can to keep out alternate voices. I was banned from the platform of the recent Green Alliance mayoral hustings, in spite of the fact that my group has two seats at the London Assembly and a totally different view about issues like Heathrow. If there were meaningful coverage of 'others', more people would be interested in the race. In 2000, I publicly predicted a 30% turnout in the Mayor race and all the journalists I knew said 'impossible'. Simon Jenkins even wrote that the turnout would be higher than a General Election! I was right because I could tell that it was just an enormous turnoff to all my friends and family, clients and contacts. If those involved and able to influence affairs are not committed to diversity in politics then alternate voices will not be heard other than on occasional sufferance...and the majority will just switch off. A race between Ken and Boris might be of interest to the wonks, but it frankly doesn't really get many people's knickers wagging.
Posted by: Damian Hockney AM | 26/02/2008 at 04:33 PM
Not sure you're right that it's a two horse race.
a) Paddick's the candidate who has put on between 4% and 6% depending on which poll you look at.
b) Second preferences are far higher for Paddick than for the other two candidates.
So if it's a Livingstone / Johnson run off Livingstone wins.
But if it's Livingstone / Paddick then Paddick wins.
So really it's a two horse race between Johnson & Paddick as to who gets the final round. It's in Livingstone's interests for Johnson to come second since Livingstone will comfortably get more of Paddick's second preferences than Johnson.
Posted by: Rob Blackie | 26/02/2008 at 04:57 PM
Damian Hockney is welcome to give an interview to me, which I'll carry in full in audio form on my blog.
http://davehill.typepad.com/london3ms/
Political Betting has some good stuff on the polls:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/02/27/did-ken-hold-back-mori-to-trump-yougov/
Best Wishes!
Posted by: Dave Hill | 27/02/2008 at 12:49 PM